Global markets have moved sharply in recent days following developments in the Middle East. News of a temporary cease‑fire between the US and Iran, alongside the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, brought a wave of relief across markets, with equities rebounding and oil prices retreating from panic‑driven highs.

Hendrik Pfaff, CIO of PWM, cautions that while markets welcome signs of de‑escalation, the global environment remains fluid — and humility is required when interpreting short‑term outcomes.

As Hendrik Pfaff noted in his recent CIO communication, the global outlook shifted extremely quickly — from a deeply negative scenario to a far more constructive one — almost overnight. This alone is a reminder of how rapidly sentiment, prices and expectations can change.

At the same time, earlier CIO bulletins warned against overconfidence or forecasts in environments like this, where:

This echoes a timeless biblical principle:

Adding important depth, Meryl Pick, Portfolio Manager at Old Mutual Investment Group, explains that oil prices are influenced by more than cease‑fires and military headlines.

Even if shipping routes reopen, global oil flows remain dependent on maritime insurance — including war‑risk and liability cover — which typically takes months to normalise after conflict. Without insurance, oil cannot move, regardless of political agreements.

History shows that this creates a lag between geopolitical calm and real economic normalisation — one of the reasons oil prices can stay elevated or volatile longer than markets expect.

Periods like this can place pressure on inflation upward, delay interest‑rate relief, and temporarily weigh on growth — but they do not invalidate long‑term investment strategies.

Instead, they elevate the importance of:

As Scripture reminds us:

In her recent message, Nikki Bush wrote about how the world seems to be holding its breath — a phrase that feels especially appropriate right now. In times of global turmoil, our instinct is often to react, retreat, or rush to certainty. Yet wisdom invites a different response.

One quote she shared feels particularly relevant for investors:

Market volatility brings information. It brings emotion. But it does not need to dictate our decisions.

Or as the Bible puts it:

Geopolitical events, wars, and crises are a recurring feature of human history — and of financial markets. Over time, those investors who remain calm, diversified, and anchored to sound principles tend to fare far better than those who react to every headline.

Our role is not to predict the next move in oil prices or geopolitics — but to ensure portfolios are resilient, balanced, and positioned for the long journey ahead.

If you would like to talk through how current events affect your personal situation, or simply need reassurance during noisy markets, we are always here to help.

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